This week's news about October retail sales (-2.8% relative to the previous month and now down in real terms for five months in a row) confirm that the U.S. has entered its most severe consumer-led recession in decades. At this rate of free fall in consumption, real gross domestic product growth could be a whopping 5% negative or even worse in the fourth quarter of 2008. And this is not a temporary phenomenon: Almost all of the fundamentals driving consumption are heading south on a persistent and structural basis.
Consider the many severe negative factors affecting consumption. One can count at least 20 separate or complementary causes that will sharply reduce consumption in the next several years:
For the rest of the article click on this link:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/19/consumer-debt-savings-oped-cx_nr_1120roubini.html?feed=rss_news
Comment:
It is not surprising that the recession has been affecting retail. According to my earlier contributions in this blog there have been several indicators for the plummet in the overall economy. So the current retail situation is just another reflection of the fact that people who are affected by the recession have to cut costs in every aspect of their life.
Oezguer (Oscar).
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1 comment:
our economy is affecting everyone in this country. With christmas upon us I know of many peole who will be unable to get their family the christmas they are used to having. The holidays is a very difficult time to deal with the mess of our economy.
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